Abundance by Diamandis and Kotler

Technology is the great enabler: it makes what was once scarce abundant.

Seen from the lens of technology, resources are not scarce but merely inaccessible.

The authors give the example of aluminium, a once rare element that was made commonplace by technology.

We have traditionally (and perhaps are wired to think this way unless we are deliberate about it) have had a “scarcity mindset”.

That is, we are what one would call “fatalists” when we see rising pollution level, food shortages, global temperature – We think that there is nothing that that can be done about it other than cutback our modern conveniences.

While it may be true that resources are scarce, but with human ingenuity, grit and the right technology the same (and other) resources can be used much more effectively thus ending the apparent scarcity.

We are living in an era of rapidly improving technology – and this technology is placing what was once out of reach in the palm of our hands.

It’s easy to get pessimistic because its evolutionarily favourable. Our amygdala is designed to look for bad news, it is forever on the lookout for bad news.

All of our lives are pessimistic, there is always a greater than zero chance of your investments being wiped out, terrorists storming your neighbourhood or you getting a sudden heart attack, and unfortunately the amygdala is not designed to switch off till the danger vanishes completely, but probabilistic events can never be completely eliminated.

Plus, the illusion of validity which makes people think of their own beliefs as reality. Confirmation bias makes us look for data that confirms our negative thoughts.

It is no wonder that most people are quick to paint (and truly believe) a pessimistic picture of the future.

Even worse, pessimism about the future limits desire to act. This is the real cost of pessimism.

Also, the world we live in today (global and exponential) is poorly decoded by our local and linear brains.

So, the pace at which change is happening, instead of being a cause of optimism, is unfortunately ignored by our brains.

The authors give multiple examples how almost everyone in the world has easier access to resources, energy and opportunity than our ancestors have ever had.

You too, if you think about it, will be able to think about how our lives are actually much better than our grandparents and their grandparents.

All of us face challenges in life, but at least all of us have reason to hope. Hope not simply as a virtue, but as an objective reality because there is documented evidence.

Evidence of many seemingly intractable problems that the human race has overcome in our own lifetimes.

Think about the COVID-19 pandemic, a disease that started and finished within, I’ll say, three years.

From “We don’t know much about this virus, but it can kill you” to “Here, take this vaccine and you’ll be immune”.

If this isn’t a cause for hope of the human race’s improving ability to harness technology for a better tomorrow, I do not know what is.

99.5% of water on earth is not fit for human consumption, hence there is a real need for exponential technologies to create a world of water abundance.

The authors talk about a few of the most promsing developments when it comes to water security:

The authors are confident that, while the road is long, what awaits us at the end is a world of water abundance.

• The Slingshot machine that can have its inlet hose immersed into anything wet and output “one hundred percent pure pharmaceutical-grade injectable water.”
• The LifeSaver bottle that can “removes everything there is to remove: bacteria, viruses, cysts, parasites, fungi, and other waterborne pathogens.”
• The National Alliance for Water Innovations that seeks to remove water wastage at all steps by creating a “Smart Grid for Water”
• High-tech toilets that “… powder and burn the feces and flash evaporate the urine, rendering everything sterile along the way. Rather than wasting anything, these toilets give back: packets of urea (for fertilizer), table salt, volumes of freshwater, and enough power that you can charge your cell phone while taking a crap, should the need arise.“

1 of 7 people in the world do not have enough to eat, with the young being the most vulnerable.

Even if they do not die of hunger, the severe lack of resources during childhood leads to stunted adults in every sense of the term.

The practices used today to grow food (vegetarian or not) are unsustainable and something needs to change otherwise the planet will not be able to support us.

A good first step has been the emergence of Genetically Engineered (GE) seeds.

Despite the intial concerns regarding their safety, environmental impact or how “natural” they were, it is clear that GE seeds have contributed to the increase in food production/security over the last two decades.

However, there are more promising technologies on the horizon:

Vertical farming: Using hydroponics (and even aeroponics) and applying it to farms laid out vertically inside tall buildings in cities allows for the production of foodstuffs right where (or very close to) where the consumption will happen. Since 70% of a foodstuff’s price comes from transportation, storage and handling, this will mean a significant reduction in cost as well as the benefits that come from eating fresh. Combine this with networks and sensors monitoring everything from temperature to pH balance and according to the authors “vertical farms offer the clearest path toward ending hunger and malnutrition.”.

Aquaculture: At the basic level allows reduction in commercial ocean fishing practices and hence protect ocean ecosystems from damage, which then have knock-on effects to the rest of the world. But in more advanced applications can even become a source of generating fortified protein that has very little environmental impact and becomes an integrated part of the global food chain.

In-vitro meat: If all of us start eating cultured meat, it may lead to one of the biggest reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions. It is no secret that rearing livestock for meat is a leading contributor to global warming (apart from other risks like diseases).

Agroecology: Can help us design food systems that mimic the natural world. Instead of striving for zero-environmental impacts, agroecologists want systems that produce more food on less land while simultaneously enhancing ecosystems and promoting biodiversity.

Solar power is getting cheaper by the year, and according to the authors there will come a time when it will be cheaper than conventional fossil fuel based form of energy. In fact, as of writing, this has actually happened.

But there is more, next generation biofuels derived from algae can increase production by orders of magnitude, thus reducing the land area needed for such projects to a fraction of what is needed today.

Artificial photosynthesis can provide us with solar fuels that may have the potential to replace fossil fuels. Liquid Metal Batteries can provide a “install and forget” way of storing energy for households and be able to reliably work for decades.

Once upon a time the domain of the elite, education is now democratic because of the internet and reaching the bottom most strata of society through initiatives like One Laptop Per Child.

And even what counts as “education” is changing, the common system of education that most adults today grew up in is based on an archaic ideal of the industrial revolution where humans were literally treated as resources, standardisation was the need of the hour, and the system was designed like an assembly line.

However, the education system that babies being born today will be nothing like this.

1. First, it will not teach the rote memorization of facts, but rather will teach kids how to ask the right questions.
2. Second, it will likely be more gamified so that learning is actually fun (which it is IMO, school takes all the fun out of it).
3. Third, it will be more flexible with students being able to mix and match subjects basis whatever is most suitable for them.
4. Fourth, it will be personalized, at a basic level with students being able to access it on demand and skip over to or rewatch those parts that they are finding interesting/challenging (instead of relying on a teacher’s physical presence), and at an advanced level through AI as it understands at a deep level the student’s learning style, acumen, interests and more to serve content in the optimal pedagogical style (already this has come through in Chat GPT).
5. Finally, students will not simply cease to be students when they graduate. Lifelong learning will become commonplace as a desire and curiosity to learn new things is correctly introduced during formative years and remains with one throughout life.

Our bodies are so complex with many moving parts, and when that is combined with the exponential rate of growth in our medical knowledge base that it may be impossible for even the smartest and most gifted doctors to keep up.

But the good news is that powerful ubiquitous computing combined with AI can help doctors all over the world make the right calls and design the right treatment protocol for patients.

Robotics can not only augment surgeons in the operating room but also act as caregivers for the elderly.

Also helping the situation, especially for the less fortunate among us, is zero cost diagnostics that is dropping the cost of testing and diagnosing disease by orders of magnitude, example the mChip.

Stem cell therapy is gaining ground as well and within a decade we might reach the ability to regenerate or even “grow” organs using a patient’s own stem cells.

Again, powerful and ubiquitous computing will have a role to play in making medicine predictive and personalised.

P4 medicine (stands for “Predictive, Personalised, Preventive and Participatory” medicine) that will allow us to nip disease and injury in the bud instead of taking a reactive approach to it.

The authors also seem to indicate that we are now used to, and in fact, expect science and technology to “fix” our bodies whenever something goes wrong.

This, to me, marks a contrast with even just a century ago the general populace would have been more forbearing with physical ailments.

Sensors will also get more commonplace, accurate, smarter and cheaper so that we are able to track our bodies in real time and take steps to avoid future problems.

And as costs go down over time the authors predict, “Soon every newborn will have his or her genome sequenced. Genetic profiles will be part of standard patient care. Cancer victims will have their tumors DNA analyzed, with the results linked to a massive data correlation effort.“.

Many define freedom as “having control on one’s time”. I think it is apt. The tools of abundance enabled by exponential technology allow precisely this.

If you do not have to spend time thinking about where you next meal/medicine/paycheck is going to come from, then you release that time to think about the things that are more meaningful to you.

“… of all the categories in question, self-empowerment has been and will continue to be the one most significantly affected by the rising tide of abundance.“

DIY revolution

Earlier, progress was the province of large organisations and governments – but now, there is a possibility of true breakthroughs in the use of technology with every new garage startup.

From UAVs to social reforms has been touched by regular people with a passion to change the world. Earlier, audacious goals were the domain of governments, no longer “… anyone can take on a grand challenge“.

Technophilanthropy

This refers to capital being spent by wealthy philanthropist (often the “technophilanthropist”) to improve lives. Money greases the wheels of the economy and that spurs innovation.

The world has never before seen the number of young multi-millionaires and billionaires there are today. And these young and energetic humans are focused on using their wealth and influence to address the most challenging issues of our time.

Rising billion

The “rising billion” (the poorest of the poor in the world) that have historically been denied progress are now entering the mainstream, that too, not as consumers but creators through the proliferation of the global transportation network, internet, wireless communications and microfinance.

Modern technology has already led to millions of people rise out of abject poverty and live a life of relative abundance.

This took some time as companies had to recast their business models to suit the unique needs of the bottom billion, but now with examples like Grameenphone bringing affordable Communications along with consequent knock-on effects to Bangladesh, or the Tata Group bringing affordable mobility to the Indian masses with the Nano, or M-PESA opening the doors of mobile commerce in Kenya – it is clear that this erstwhile neglected market represents a goldmine of opportunity for triple bottom line business.

The authors also point out the pivotal role played by the internet in being a global melting pot for ideas (similar to the parallel rise of coffee houses and enlightenment during the 18th century). And it is ideas, tested against each other, that drive the world forward.